Análise da relação dos gastos em assistência social com as variáveis macroeconômicas brasileiras pela análise fatorial

Abstract

Public policies for social assistance were created with the function to reduce the difficulties faced by part of the population in extreme poverty. Programs such as Continued Benefit and Family Grant, are designed to ensure a minimum income to the population providing improved living conditions. However, this kind of public initiative has an impact on the domestic economy, since the allocation of income to the population moves local markets, chain, will handle the large centers. Therefore, this study gathered macroeconomic variables in order to verify their influence on income transfer programs and their relations through factor analysis. The study period was from January 2004, the year of the beginning of transfers of programs, until November 2015, totaling 143 monthly observations. The methodology used was the factor analysis, one of the statistical techniques that make up the Multivariate Analysis and has a feature to reduce the data set. The results identify two main factors, the first called income generation, is most relevant variables to income tax, the assistance programs, the real minimum wage, the Gross Domestic Product and the Excise Tax. In the second, market conditions, the most significant variables are the Current Economic Conditions Index and the Activity Rate. It follows the results of the study that the Income Generation factor represents the gain of sources for the domestic economy and significant changes under any one can affect the other. similar relationship is found in the Market Conditions factor. The results obtained can be understood that radical changes in federal policies regarding income transfer programs can cause a change in the entire domestic economy.