Análise da viabilidade econômica de produção de calçados por meio da Simulação de Monte Carlo

Abstract

The footwear sector of Brazil is ranked in the world ranking as one of the largest producers and consumers of footwear. In this sense, the aim of this research is to identify which scenario between the states of Rio Grande do Sul and Ceará shows the most promises for the installation of a footwear factory for a certain company. The methodological classification of this work is an applied nature, with a quantitative approach and with descriptive objectives. Also, the initial technical procedure is a bibliographic review, followed by modeling and simulation. From the literature review, it was possible to structure the scenarios. After that, data collection was performed and the cash flows and calculations of NPV, IRR, Simple Payback and Discounted Payback were made. Thus, Monte Carlo Simulations were performed. To complement the study and for comparison with the results obtained in the simulation, scenarios were structured from manual changes in spreadsheet. Both forms of analysis demonstrated the guarantee of profitability in the installation of a factory in any of the scenarios. Meantime, the Ceará is more attractive for promoting a faster return on investment and generating a higher profit at the end of the periods analyzed.