Transmissão de preços na cadeia produtiva do leite no Brasil no período de 2005 a 2017

Abstract

The dairy activity was carried out for years only for subsistence in Brazil, but, from the 50's onwards, the rural producers began to perform the for-profit activity. During this period, the prices paid to the producer were fixed by the government and continued until 1972, when state intervention came to an end. Coupled with this change in the economy, the dairy industry has also changed with the entry of some multinationals, such as Parmalat and Danone, who came with new products and new ways of processing fresh milk. Given this discussion, the present work aims to evaluate how the price transmission occurs within the milk production chain in Brazil, from January 2005 to August 2017. In order to reach the proposed objective, the calculation of the Margin of commercialization of both the industry and the retail, as well as the portion of the producer. In addition, we estimated the elasticities of price transmission through the Model VAR, in addition to the speed of adjustment of the series with the Model VEC. Other points analyzed were the Impulse-Response Model and the Granger Causality Test to identify the precedence of price causality within the milk production chain. The main results indicate that the industry and the retail have, jointly, a greater part of the marketing margin, when compared to the portion destined to the milk producer. Through the other tests it can be identified that both the prices of the industry and the prices of the retail precede the variations of the prices paid to the milk producer. Moreover, given an increase in prices paid to milk producers, prices in industry and retail in the first period tend to increase, but during the remaining periods they return to equilibrium.