O comércio como vetor de integração regional: uma análise da relação bilateral Brasil-Argentina ante a ascensão chinesa no âmbito do Mercosul

Abstract

Troubled times marked the past relationship between Brazil and Argentina, however, nowadays both countries have an important relationship as political and commercial partners. From this relationship, the Southern Common Market (Mercosur) was born in 1991. In the context of the bloc's evolution, a new player has emerged in the international economic system - China, which has become an important trading partner of the South American countries, and begins to influence the process of regional economic integration mentioned above, causing several challenges. With this in mind, this paper starts from the following research question: to what extent has the rise of China as a trading partner of Brazil and Argentina impacted the bilateral trade relationship between the two South American countries in the context of Mercosur? To answer this question, we used a descriptive method with analytical bias, seeking to obtain conclusions from the observed and described phenomena, and expose the characteristics of the problem through qualitative and quantitative data extracted from the databases of the Ministry of Economy of Brazil, the Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censos of Argentina, the Foreign Trade Statistics System of Mercosur, UN Comtrade, the World Bank, Atlas of Complexity, and UNCTAD. The case study procedure and bibliographic and document research techniques are used. The specific objectives are: i) to gather regional integration theories and make a history of the Mercosur integration process, with emphasis on the participation of Brazil and Argentina; ii) to understand the evolution of trade between Brazil and Argentina, and between Brazil and Argentina and China, since the creation of Mercosur; and iii) to analyze the periods characterized by their alignment with different proposals of regionalism, and the impact of trade between Brazil and Argentina, and between Brazil and Argentina and China. It was found that the relationship brought bilateral benefits for each of the countries in the short term, such as the increase in foreign exchange and the rise in commodity prices. However, it is capable of causing serious and diverse consequences in the long term, such as the reprimarization of the economies, dependence on Asian consumption, and the loss of competitiveness of Brazilian manufactured products, among other aspects that represent limitations to the bloc's integration process.