Aplicação do modelo swat para estudo de cenários hidrológicos na Bacia Hidrográfica do Rio Jaguari - RS

Abstract

Scientific research related to water resources is essential for analyzing socio-environmental impacts resulting from climate change and improper land use practices. In this context, hydrological models play a crucial role in contributing to watershed management through the simulation of water balance components. Among the existing hydrological models, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is frequently used due to its intuitive interface and broad applicability for hydro-sedimentological information production. Thus, this study aimed to apply the SWAT model to simulate hydrological scenarios in the Jaguari River Watershed.To achieve this, we first analyzed quantitative data on scientific publications that applied the SWAT model in Brazil, identifying researchers and institutions to understand the current state of global scientific production in the research area. After the bibliometric analysis, we organized the necessary database to initiate the hydrological modeling. Due to limited hydrological monitoring in the watershed, meteorological data from the World Weather for Water Data Service (W3S) platform, recommended by SWAT developers, were used. Calibration was conducted manually to ensure a coherent water balance estimation and control over all simulated hydrological processes. Considering literature classification, hydrological simulation yielded good results for flow, with performance during the calibration period reaching an efficiency coefficient of 0.74 and a correlation coefficient of 0.86. For the validation period, coefficients were 0.72 and 0.85, respectively. Following model calibration, an alternative land use scenario was introduced, preserving riparian forests entirely, to assess changes in the water balance due to anthropogenic interference. Observable changes included increased groundwater storage and consequently higher flow due to a greater fraction of water in the base flow. Thus, the initial hydrological simulation for this study area achieved satisfactory results, demonstrating the modeling capability and success despite certain limitations in national data acquisition for this field of work. Therefore, it is recommended for future studies, building upon the adjusted calibration, to apply various alternative land use or climate change scenarios.