Simulação da produtividade de grãos de arroz irrigado em cenário futuro no estado do Rio Grande do Sul

Abstract

Projections of a possible climate change indicate that the current CO2 concentration is expected to double and air temperature increase by up to 6°C by the end of this century, leading to changes in crops yield. The impact of climate change on irrigated rice in conditions of Southern Brazil should be positive, with increases in potential grain yield. However, there are few studies to assess the impact of climate change in Rio Grande do Sul, a State with an important role in rice production in the country. Thus, the objective of this study was to simulate the impact of climate change on rice grain yield in Rio Grande do Sul in a climate change scenario based on the IPCC A1B scenario. The grain yield was simulated with the SimulArroz model for three maturity groups (early, middle and late), seven sowing dates (01/08, 01/09, 01/10, 01/11, 01/12, 01/01 and 01/02) at different levels of crop management (technological level), in the six rice production regions of the State. The results indicate that climate change expected for the A1B scenario will have a positive effect on grain yield of rice in Rio Grande do Sul State, mainly at the end of the century, when the sowing period may be anticipated. There were variations on the effect of climate change on yield among the rice production regions with the West part of the State the least favored region and the Southern part of the State the most favored in the future scenario.