Estudo da relação entre a inflação e o custo do cesto básico em Santa Maria - RS

Abstract

The monograph presents an applied and exploratory study of the relation between the inflation and the basic basket in Santa Maria, RS, among July, 2002 until June, 2008. The finality is to qualify the relation between the cost of basic basket and the determine variables of this cost, comparing it to the economic theory and discovering intrinsic aspects of this subject. The methodology utilized considers what is disposed in the Constitution of 1988 basing itself formally in the familiarly expanses researched by DIEESE, as the prices collected by LAEPEE. In the quantitative aspect are realized correlations between inflation indices. Besides the analyses of the variables through utilization of models: VAR (long term) and VECM (short term). The main results appoint to the basic basket of Santa Maria has high correlation with the other baskets of the researched capitals. There is a discrepancy between the main inflation indices and the basic basket of the researched capitals. The conclusions are that in the long term the basic basket in Santa Maria has positive influence of the variables: basket basic lag, average real income of the employee primary, exchange rate and unemployment index; negatively: tendency and prices of the oil diesel in Santa Maria. In short term the variables that influence positively the cost of the basket basic were: average real income of the employee primary, exchange rate, oil diesel in Santa Maria, basket basic lag and unemployment index.