Efeitos da ancoragem em julgamentos e decisões no mercado imobiliário: uma análise a partir do nível de conhecimento dos decisores

Abstract

Individuals often have difficulty identifying the heuristics that affect their decision-making (NOFSINGER and BAKER, 2002). However, Menkhoff, Brozynki and Schmidt (2006) show that individuals knowledgeable about the influence of heuristics in decision making may have fewer episodes of bounded rationality compared to individuals unrelated to this knowledge. According to Mussweiler et al. (2000), the Anchorage is one of the most striking influences on judgment and decision making. In this context, the main objective of this research was to verify the existence of heuristics in the anchoring of the numerical estimates of experts and non-specialists in real estate, when subjected to experimental tasks related to the field of domain expert and outside their field of knowledge, in order Thorsteinson et al. (2008), who argue that the effects of Anchorage makers are reduced when subjects have more knowledge about the problems in question. Thus, we performed a experiment with 324 subjects makers were divided into groups for Calibration and Experimental Groups, through the application of two decision-making tasks (T1 and T2), using the model Jacowitz and Kahneman (1995). It is noteworthy that many studies have been conducted in Anchorage to verify the presence of the anchoring heuristic in the process of judgment and decision making. However, this study, besides the proposal to study the effects of Anchorage during the decision making process related to quantitative, as the main contribution presented additional verification of the manifestation of Anchorage as a control variable (knowledge) is removed from the decisionmaking task. This procedure is called by Cozby (2006) a test handling, consisting in an attempt to directly measure whether the manipulation of a variable has the intended effect on the respondents. The results obtained through statistical t test for independent samples showed that there is evidence of the anchoring heuristic in decision making of individual members of the experimental group of non-experts (anchor and anchor low-high) in both T1 and T2. With respect to experts, it was revealed that T1 is no evidence of the anchoring heuristic, which corroborates the results found by Jacowitz and Kahneman (1995) and Luppe (2006). However, in relation to the second decision-making task (T2), it was observed that the mean differences were not statistically significant, implying that, at T2, are not found evidence of Anchorage in the decision process of experts, contradicting the results by Norfhcraft and Neale (1987) and Dorow (2009), who found evidence of Anchorage in the decision process when they were real estate brokers who underwent estimates for the real estate market.