Relações existentes no consumo de energia elétrica em cinco regiões geográficas brasileiras

Abstract

This research studies the existing relations of electrical energy consumption among the five geographic regions of Brazil. The period analysed comprehends monthly aggregated data from January, 1979 to March, 2014, with a total number of 423 observations for each one of the five regions of Brazil. By means of SIN (Nationa Interconnected System) the transmissions among subsystems from almost the whole country are possible. Brazil is among the ten most electrical energy consuming countries of the world. The series presented an integration order equal too ne with cointegration, so, to measure these influences a VEC (Vector Error Correction) model was used. Throughout the Impulse Response Function (FIR) and Variancy Decomposition Analysis (ADV) it was possible to verify how each region behaves to an abrupt change in the consumption of the other regions, as well as what is the participation of each region in the variance explanation of each series, the regions with minor consumption showed more vulnerable than the others. The conclusions were that there are significative relationships between the demands of electricity in the regions surveyed, their behavior depends basically on the geographic proximity between them and its participation on the national electrical energy consumption.