Crises econômicas na América Latina: a experiência brasileira e mexicana na década de 90

Abstract

The 1990s was marked by several crisis wich changed the course of Brazilian and Mexican´s economical politics. This way, some variables wich had impact in this occurrence were analyzed, with the finality of observe the profile of it in both coutries, without reject, nevertheless, factors wich has favorece the crisi. It was adoptede for this work an approach of econometrics based on the logit model, in which the dependet variable crisis is subdivided in two, assuming values 0 to stability and 1 to the crisis and the independent variables the effective real exchange´s rate, the international reservations and the basic rate of interest.This model was applied in 120 observations counting from January of 1990 to December of 1990. Basead on the model it can be conclude that the international variable reserve was significant ti the level of 95% to the estudied economies, despite the exchange´s rates and interest´s rates wich were not significant to the level of 95%. Howerer, like the last variables interfier on reservations, it was verified what was the impact of these on the reservations, through the regression model by the minimum quadrate method.Then, the exchange´s rate has more impact in Brazil and the interest´s rate has more impact in Mexico, indicating the Brazilian crisis was of cambial order and the Mexican was of financial order. This way, it is conclude the economical stabilization politics adopted in both coutries, having as ancor the cambial and monetary politics explain the occurred crisis on the of study.