Padrões atmosféricos associados a extremos de precipitação na primavera no estado do Rio Grande do Sul

Abstract

The goal of this work is to define the atmospheric patterns associated with the extreme precipitation events in the Rio Grande do Sul (RS) state in spring. The data used were the rainfall series provided by the Agência Nacional das Águas (ANA, in portugues) and reanalysis data of high resolution of the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) of 00 and 12 UTC. From the data of the ANA, on the RS, six homogeneous regions of precipitation were obtained through of Hierarchical Cluster Analysis technique, which are: the East and North Coast (R1), Southern and South Coast (R2), the West and the border with Uruguay (R3), Northern (R4), Midwest (R5) and Northwest (R6). With the averages series for each homogeneous regions, utilizing the technique of quantis, has located the days that precipitation over each region was equal or superior to the quantile 99%. With data of the CFSR was generated a matrix (NxM) being N the dates of extreme events and M are meteorological fields normalized in grid points, selected in a grid 21x19 on the RS. The fields chosen are: mean sea level pressure, thickness between 500 and 1000hPa, geopotential height at 500, zonal component of wind at 850hPa, meridional component of wind at 850hPa, zonal component of wind at 200hPa, meridional component of wind at 200hPa and specific humidity at 850hPa. Using the Non-Hierarchical Cluster Analysis, over the array, were obtained 5 atmospheric clusters, defined as the patterns. For the Cluster 1 the principal events of extreme precipitation had locating in the regions R2, R3, R5 and R6. In Cluster 2, the events of extreme of precipitation was, principally, over the region R1. In Cluster 3, the events of extreme precipitation ocurred in the coastal regions (R1 and R2), border with Uruguay (R3) and regions wit high topography (R4 and R5). In Cluster 4, the rainfall extremes is widespread over all regions. And in Cluster 5, extreme precipitation ocurred principally in the R2, R3 and R4 regions. The Cluster 3 showed strong features of a front incursion, while the characteristics of a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) are present in Cluters 1, 4 and 5. Thus, the three major weather systems that cause extreme precipitation in RS, the MCS are the most important and only the Upper-level cut-off low not has been clearly identified, but the Cluster 2 presents some features that may indicate their presence, which are for example, the trough axis on the RS and the formation of a surface cyclone on the coast.