Influência do El Niño Oscilação Sul (ENOS) nas precipitações anômalas e seu impacto nas principais culturas de Honduras

Abstract

The Central America region, in specific Honduras, is located in an exposed area to the manifestation of climatic phenomena, such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which propitiates variations in the precipitation regime. In the last few years this highlighted region has been little studied, so the understanding of ENSO spatial-temporal climatic variability is of vital importance for regional water, energy and agricultural planning. The main purpose of this work was to evaluate the influence of ENSO on the irregular precipitations and its impact on main agricultural crops in Honduras. For this aim, precipitation data reanalysis was used from 1979-2018 period. Furthermore, data from Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) was obtained in order to find its relationship alongside precipitation. Time lags significance tests (with and without) were also applied for correlation between variables. Outcomes revealed that for Eastern, Central and Northern regions of Honduras, El Niño years showed positive precipitation anomalies during the first rainy season and negative anomalies in succeeding seasons. Instead, La Niña years cause a precipitation postponement in the first rainy season across the country. When analyzing lags, El Niño strengthens in the southern region in the second month and expands in the fourth or fifth after being aligned. Finally, La Niña presented positive correlations in the northern part of the country after the fourth month. Conclusively, corn, beans and coffee production water requirements proved to be favorable throughout the country with the exclusion of Central region for corn and South region for coffee cultivation, together, due to the greater occurrence of droughts caused by El Niño.