Avaliação temporal da situação epidemiológica da sífilis congênita no Brasil

Abstract

INTRODUCTION: Syphilis is a sexually transmitted infection. Vertical transmission causes congenital infection and may result in clinical manifestations that may appear in the first three months, during or after the child's two years of life. According to data released by DATASUS, the number of confirmed cases of Congenital Syphilis in Brazil jumped from 6.944 to 214.489 between 2010 and 2020. In order to manage strategies to combat Syphilis, it is essential to seek innovative methods; exponential smoothing models can be a good option for management, as they do not need a lot of data to make predictions. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the incidence of Congenital Syphilis cases in Brazil using a mathematical model of exponential smoothing. METHODS: A time series statistical analysis of Congenital Syphilis cases in Brazil was performed. The data reported between 2007 and 2021 were collected by DATASUS. The simple exponential smoothing model was applied using SPSS Software, Holt-Winters multiplicative method, with 95% confidence interval. RESULTS: The forecasts for the total number of cases in Brazil indicated an increase of ± 1,000 cases/year. The results were organized/described by region, predicting an increase in cases in most regions, with the exception of the Midwest and South. Data for the first half of 2021 were compared with the forecasts obtained, indicating a degree of similarity between the predicted values and reported cases. CONCLUSION: The results indicate an increase in the number of cases in Brazil; the Southeast and Northeast regions will have a higher incidence of Congenital Syphilis.