Análises de viabilidade econômica na produção de arroz em São Gabriel – RS, por meio da simulação Monte Carlo

Abstract

Rice production is crucial to the economy and society and the Rio Grande do Sul is responsible for over 70% of the national production. Thus, this research aims to identify what is the scenario of greater economic viability in rice production. Through the bibliographic research the production scenarios were developed, and then, a data collection was performed, the VPLs of each case were calculated and performed the simulations. The work was developed using the base of the city of São Gabriel - RS for purposes of productivity calculations. For this, interviews were conducted with a rice producer in the region. Obtained primary results that small farmers, 25ha and 50ha are more likely to profit by not purchasing tractors, combine harvesters and silos. In contrast, from 100ha scenario where this acquisition is performed is that greater chance of profit which exceeds 50%.