Previsão de demanda aplicada a uma indústria de rolhas

Abstract

Given the importance of demand forecasting and its direct influence on companies strategic planning, a study was developed on the analysis and estimation of demand for some products of a cork industry located in the highlands of “Rio Grande do Sul”. The main objective is to suggest a demand forecasting model to assist the responsible manager in making decisions related to the products. Thus, we selected the three types of corks with the highest sales in the last four years to conduct this research. Through information drawn from the company's historical demand, it was verified a seasonal cycle for the three types of cork stoppers. Knowing this, a simple seasonality forecasting model was proposed , which was validated according to the MAD method for the three cases, presenting errors within the tolerance limits and confirming its usability. Also, the forecast for the following periods was calculated, according to the seasonal trend discovered. However, a model monitoring was advised to identify possible inconsistencies and confirm its accuracy.