Tomada de decisão em contextos específicos: uma análise das relações entre os métodos multicritérios de apoio à decisão e as estratégias de decisão humana

Abstract

This thesis aimed to investigate the relationship between Multicriteria Decision Making methods and decision strategies used by individuals in the selection process in a specific context. Therefore, as a basis we took the fundamental elements of three multiple criteria methods, PROMETHEE MACBETH and AHP, as well as the decision strategies: additive-compensatory, additive difference, elimination by aspects and conjunctive by Todd and Benbasat (1991), which allowed build six categories of analysis of this study: independent evaluations, dependent evaluations, summations, differences, eliminations and temporary choices. Therefore, a laboratory experiment was conducted in a multi-brand car shop so that the individual could perform the task of choosing an second-hand car independently: with the aid of one of Multicriteria Decision Aid (Visual PROMETHEE, M-MACBETH or TransparentChoice) and without the aid of the system, that is, only with the mind of the individual to guide the decision, being used the verbal think aloud protocol. Thus, 61 experimental subjects participated in the survey. The presentation of the results proved the relationship between two, additive difference and elimination by aspect, out of the four strategies proposed decisions by Todd and Benbasat (1991), since these two strategies were identified in the three systems. However, statistical tests showed a significant difference for the decision strategy elimination by aspect for the SADs TransparentChoice and for additive difference for SADs M-MACBETH and TransparentChoice. The two strategies, elimination by aspect and additive difference for individuals who received the aid only of SAD Visual PROMETHEE are similar to multicriteria decision making methods underlying to this system, in this case, PROMETHEE. Furthermore, we observed that there is a difference in the outcome of the decision when the individual used different SADs, M-MACBETH and Visual PROMETHEE, and that the latter facilitated more the process of choosing consumer goods, in this case, second-hand vehicles. In this context, the SADs served to confirm the assessment of characteristics previously made by the individual s cognitive decision-making system. Furthermore, we found that the individual, when solving a complex decision task, makes a number of connections that are not extended to systems. These findings were noticeable through the tactics that emerged during the verbalization process, i.e., indeterminacies concerning other attributes that were not being considered in the task at hand and compensation trade-offs that each experimental subject performed, which are not allowed by systems. These results suggest specific implications and generate new insights in future research. We believe that the objectives of this thesis were achieved, contributing to the academic and decision-making areas, since the results can serve as guidelines for decision making in the organizational context involving consumer goods purchasing decisions.