Impactos do acordo de preferência comercial transpacífico no agronegócio brasileiro

Abstract

This work aims to evaluate the impact on Brazilian agribusiness form realization of agreement, Transpacific Trade Preference (TPP). As well as exploring the issue of comparative advantages and complementarity of Brazil's producers markets with the markets of other regions and how it would affect the Brazilian agribusiness. In this sense, we not only analyse the changes in the economy when the elimination of all tariff barriers, what characterizes the formation of a free trade area, but also the elimination of barriers tariff in conjunction with the elimination of the subsidies agreement. To this end, we use the general equilibrium model of Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP). The Elimination of import tariffs between the economies of the TPP, it was possible to identify the economic impacts on Brazilian agribusiness, mostly, were negative, hurting mainly the sectors of meat, corn, wool, processed food and rice. The fields of wheat, oilseeds and vegetables suffer positive impacts. On the other hand in the scenario of complete liberalisation of trade between the intrablocos regions, such as the Elimination of import tariffs and export subsidies and production. The impacts generated in Brazilian agribusiness were more significant, in the fields of wheat, vegetables, oil seeds and fruits, with the Brazilian agricultural sector producer and exporter being positively influenced. However, wool, milk, processed foods and meats were the hardest hit. In addition, the complete liberalization of trade would promote economic welfare gains and losses higher, when compared to the scenario of tariff elimination, because the tariff structure between members of the TPP is already reasonably reduced. Therefore, the possible intensification in trade intrabloco of TPP, without the reduction of subsidies on production, could weaken the Brazilian agribusiness, therefore suggests loss of competitiveness in the sector.