Estudo da oferta interna de energia e do crescimento econômico no Brasil de 1940 a 2009

Abstract

The need to use energy to move the various sectors of countries such as the transportation sector (air, sea, land), residential, commercial and industrial shows a direct relationship between economic growth and internal supply of energy (OIE). In this context, the present study aims to measure the growth rates of these series in 1940 to 2009 in Brazil, and analyze the behavior of them through Box-Jenkins models. To compare the rates of change of the series in the period studied were used two simple regression models (which measure the rate of increase or decrease) which performs the calculation of the test of parallel lines. There was also the modeling Box-Jenkins to verify the process each generator series. The results show that the GDP had a growth rate in the period considered larger than the OIE, this result is as expected since in mid-2001 and 2002 there was deficit in energy supply in the country. Furthermore, it was found that the model best suited to explain the OIE was an ARIMA (1, 1, 0) and the GDP an ARIMA (1, 1, 1) these models show the processes Series generators, indicating how they should be analyzed over time to this DataSet. Soon, these results show that the Government should be aware of the energy sector's infrastructure and avoiding new deficits in power supply providing the balance between internal supply of energy and economic growth.