Definição da contribuição dos aspectos que influenciam a difusão de sistemas fotovoltaicos em consumidores residenciais

Abstract

With an increasing demand for electricity and the various concerns about the environment, increase of fossil fuels and energy security, increased the concern of producing energy from renewable sources. In 2002 was created by the Law nº 10.438 PROINFA, which aims to increase the participation of alternative energy sources. In 2012, the National Electric Energy Agency (ANEEL) published the Normative Resolution nº 482, updated by nº 687, which establishes general conditions for access to distributed microgeneration and minigeration, encouraging the insertion of Distributed Generation in Low Voltage residential consumers. The insertion of photovoltaic systems by residential consumers is the most widespread, but its use introduces an uncertainty factor in the planning of electricity distribution systems, since the decision to acquire a photovoltaic system depends on each consumer. These uncertainties are barriers that can be classified into economic, social, technical, management and political aspects. In this sense, this work presents a proposal for the determination of the contribution of each aspect, through the multicriteria method Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)( astructured technique used in complex situations based on mathematics and psychology), considering a diffusion prediction model of photovoltaic system that uses the technique of system dynamics and the model of Bass. This study proposals energy policies directed to the aspects economics (higher), technicols and politicals, as they have a greaterinfluence on the diffusion process according to the determination by the AHP method, based on research conducted with experts.