Uso de simulação para análise econômica e risco da terminação de novilhos em confinamento com dieta puro concentrado em nove estados e três épocas do ano

Abstract

O objetivo deste estudo foi verificar a viabilidade econômica e o risco associado à terminação de novilhos em confinamento com dieta alto grão em diferentes estados brasileiros e épocas do ano utilizando ferramentas de simulação. Deterministic and probabilistic simulations were carried out based on animal performance data found in literature, and historical quotation data from the years 2006 to 2018 for cost of live cattle, lean cattle, maize grain and land value, these being the unique sources of variation between the states and times of the year studied. Nine states included were Rio Grande do Sul (RS), Paraná (PR), São Paulo (SP), Mato Grosso do Sul (MS), Mato Grosso (MT), Goiás (GO), Minas Gerais (MG), Bahia (BA) and Tocantins (TO). Production cycles were considered from December to March, April to July and August to November. A significant difference (P<0.05) was found for economic viability between states and cycles, for which, Ago-Nov presented the best financial results in most states. The Net Present Value was R $ -159.10 (RS), R $ -262.48 (PR), R $ -345.42 (SP), R $ -335.28 (MS), R $ -250 , 36 (MT), R $ -335.18 (GO), R $ -335.02 (MG), R $ -300.14 (BA), R $ -443.48 (TO). The average probabilities of NPV≥0 found were 27.97% (RS), 18.27% (PR), 11.87% (SP), 11.57% (MS), 17.13% (MT), 13.77% (GO), 13.20% (MG), 14.17% (BA), 9.73% (TO). Sensitivity analysis showed that in order of greatest importance to lowest, in general, items that most influenced result were price of live cattle, lean cattle, final weight, initial weight and price of corn. Termination system in confinement with pure grain diet is an investment that, in most chaos presents a low or zero return per animal, has a high probability of economic failure if it is not very well planned.