Análise das interações entre as principais fontes geradoras da matriz elétrica brasileira

Abstract

Energy management is capable of ensuring the sustainable use of natural resources. This research aimed at identifying interactions among the Brazilian electric matrix sources, using simultaneous equations, and evaluating impacts on electricity generation of each source by means of scenario simulation. The generating sources analyzed were: biomass; coal; fuels; wind power; natural gas; hydropower; nuclear. Monthly values from January 2000 to June 2019 were collected on the National Electricity Agency website. The seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) method was used because it is a more efficient estimator, since only significant coefficients are selected for the system. The analysis of the optimistic and pessimistic scenarios evaluated the great impact on the hydropower source caused by extreme variations in the renewable generation, at the same time it presented a strong dependence on thermal sources in periods of rain scarcity. In an optimistic horizon, we found that the generation of biomass, wind, coal and fuel sources will decrease and there will be an increase in the hydropower use. The alternative to reduce dependence on thermoelectric plants is to increase the generation of unconventional renewable sources, such as biomass, wind and solar, as well as increasing financial incentives and developing public policies that encourage these sources generation.