Ferramenta de apoio à gestão de ativos para sistema de potência empregando os métodos AHP e Monte Carlo aplicada a transformadores de potência

Abstract

The electric power system is characterized by the large presence of assets with high systemic importance and high added values. Thus, it becomes necessary for utilities to seek alternatives for better management of their assets, carefully evaluating, and carrying out a plan that meets the demands in the most profitable way for their operation, and maintaining the quality of the electricity supply. In view of this, the present work aims to propose a support tool for the management of assets in the electric power system, considering factors of equipment useful life, importance to the system, and financial aspects, in addition to forecasting electricity demand, the in order to assist the utility in medium and long term planning. To achieve this objective, this work presents a methodology for analyzing the criteria that impact decisionmaking on equipment replacement, using the multicriteria Analytic Hierarchy Process – AHP method to evaluate the criteria through the opinion of industry experts and list the equipment most critical of the system. Aiming at the analysis of future scenarios, a tool was developed that uses the Monte Carlo Method to simulate the behavior of the equipment during a defined time horizon, bringing, as a result, the probabilities of the equipment reaching the limit load and being positioned among the most system critical points in simulated time. As an application of the proposed methodology, the CEEE-GT transformer park was evaluated, simulating three scenarios with different degrees of freedom for the variation of indicators. As a result, the system's most critical equipment is presented for a 10-year horizon, and changes are also proposed that can be made in the period and their likely impact on equipment loading and on the list of critical transformers in the system.