Determinantes do endividamento público no Brasil: uma análise do período de 2002 a 2022

Abstract

In recent years, Brazil's public debt has shown a steep growth trajectory, reaching values below expectations. From this context, the purpose of the study was to analyze the determining factors of public debt, in the period from January 2002 to December 2022. This objective was met by the application of three empirical models, each using a measure of debt: Debt Public Sector Net Debt (DLSP), General Government Gross Debt (DBGG) and Public Sector Financing Requirement (NFSP). The results indicated that the primary result and the economic product act as reducing mechanisms, while the interest rate and interest paid act as debt accelerators. The results demonstrate, for the three measures, that an improvement in economic and fiscal indicators contributes to the reduction of public debt, while a worsening in these indicators tends to greatly worsen it, when associated with a high interest rate policy. Therefore, the generation of primary surpluses, the growth of aggregate activity and interest rates consistent with the structural conditions of the economy are important elements to ensure long-term debt sustainability.