O Brasil às margens: a projeção chinesa e norte-americana sobre a semiperiferia (2008 e 2022)

Abstract

The present work seeks to analyze the rise of China and the decline of the United States and their impacts on the semi-periphery, focusing on the case of Brazil. Thus, the theoretical foundation of this work is based on writings from International Political Economy. In this way, through a historical analysis of the world-system and the determination of the tripartite division established by Immanuel Wallerstein, the aim is to conceptualize these determinations and define Brazil as part of the semi-periphery. Furthermore, the work is concerned with addressing Systemic Accumulation Cycles (SACs), established by Arrighi (1996), to assert that, at the present moment, we are in the fourth SAC, led by the United States. An SAC is characterized by two main phases: the first being the phase of material expansion and the peak of the SAC, and the second being the phase of financial expansion or decline of an SAC. Therefore, it is noted that the United States, in the 1970s, undergoes a crisis signaling the end of its SAC, and the 2008 crisis, the starting point of this work, is characterized as the terminal crisis of the North American SAC. Therefore, it is understood that, in this context, a revitalized China emerges, and there is a consideration that China could lead a fifth SAC, as it is currently experiencing a phase of material expansion. In this scenario of systemic chaos, the analysis is inserted regarding the impacts of such a context on a semi-peripheral country like Brazil. Therefore, indicators of economic relations with Brazil, cultural influence on Brazil, and diplomatic influence on Brazil are used to analyze the effects of Chinese and American projection on the country between 2008 and 2022, with the purpose of observing changes and continuities. These indicators will be related to Nye’s (2015) three bases of power: economic, military, and soft power.