Estados Unidos e China: um estudo comparativo sobre a ascensão de grandes potências no Sistema-Mundo moderno

Abstract

This paper presents a comparative analysis of the relative power between hegemonies in crisis and emerging powers during the transition period between the British systemic cycle of accumulation and the American one, adopting Arrighi's theoretical perspective of hegemonic cycles. By collecting quantitative indicators of the material capacities of these countries at two moments – late 19th century and 2008-2023 period -, the data is submitted to statistical analysis for measurement of relative capacities. It appears that the relative hegemonic power of the US as an emerging power significantly exceeded that of present-day China. It is concluded that the Asian country does not gather sufficient power to equal or surpass the North Americans, with its probable rise to hegemony still in an embryonic state. The world remains in "systemic chaos", with the weakened US, but without a defined successor. The paper seeks to elucidate historical patterns in order to analyze the current global power outlook.