Transmissão da variação da taxa de câmbio para os preços de exportação do complexo da soja: análise dos mercados dos Estados Unidos, do Brasil e da Argentina

Abstract

This study aimed to examine whether there are differences in the transmission of exchange rate changes on export prices (coefficient of pass-through) the soy complex (beans, meal and oil) between the United States, Brazil and Argentina. Moreover, the specific objectives were to a) describe the characteristics of American markets, Brazil and Argentina in terms of the exports of soybean complex, b) estimate the degree of pass-through of American markets, Brazil and Argentina, and c) review differences in the degree of pass-through between the three countries. The analysis period was from January 2003 to January 2012. As a method, we used time series econometrics to estimate the proposed model, the following procedures: checking the stationarity of the series; selection of lag for the VAR auxiliary; Johansen cointegration test, estimating the cointegration vector, and diagnostic tests for model. The results showed that the United States is the most competitive in the passthrough to the export price of grain and soybean meal. As for soybean oil, the most competitive country in the passthrough is Argentina.