Simulação de Monte Carlo da viabilidade econômica da terminação de bovinos de diferentes categorias em confinamento ou pastagem cultivada de inverno

Abstract

The main goal of this study was to compare the economic feasibility of steers and cows finishing on silage or whole grain feedlot, or winter ryegrass pasture. For that, were defined the following treatments: cows finished on pasture (CP), or whole grain feedlot (CG), or silage feedlot (CS); and, steers finished on pasture (SP), or whole grain feedlot (SG), or silage feedlot (SS). For the steers, the diet formulation was based on nutritional requirements of NRC (2016), to the weight range studied, and for the cows, the diet was based on nutritional requirements of BR-Corte. The economic analysis has executed using electronic spreadsheets made on Microsoft Excel. The probabilistic simulation method was applied utilizing the software @Risk, and were used correlations between cost items, revenue and animal performance. The costs were got from historical average prices practiced in Rio Grande do Sul between 2003 to 2015, obtained from public and private companies. The net present value (NPV) expected in R$ per animal and the probability of positive NPV found for the treatments SP, SG, SS, CP, CG and CS were respectively R$ -233,94 e 10,1%, R$ 174,33 e 83,7%, R$ 317,84 e 94,3%, R$ -495,45 e 0,2%, R$ -108,34 e 21,7%, R$ -40,71 e 38,1%. The NPV/ha foi de R$ -377,51 for SP, R$ 5235,20 for SG, R$ 9534,95 for SS, R$ -1484,65 for CP, R$ -3265,45 for CG e R$ -1219,51 for CS. The total operating cost (TOC) was R$ 1941,42 for SP, R$ 1.518,21 for SG, R$ 1.487,23 for SS, R$ 2.001,00 for CP, R$ 1.598,11 for CG e R$ 1.520,75 for CS. The profit (R$) per animal and per hectare for each treatment were R$ -208,48 and R$ -625,45 for SP, R$ 208,23 and R$ 6247,02 for SG, R$ 356,75 and R$ 10702,40 for SS, R$ -472,53 and R$ -1417,58 for CP, R$ -78,05 and R$ -2341,54 for CG, and R$ -6,02 and R$ -180,71 for CS. The benefit-cost ratio estimated (BCR) was 0,90 for SP, 1,06 for SG, 1,14 for SS, 0,79 for CP, 0,97 for CG and VS = 0,99. The return on investment (ROI), the internal rate of return (IRR) and the discounted payback period (DPP) found for the treatments were: -1,10%, -5,23% and 3,32 for SP, 1,88%, 1,88% and 2,84 for SG, 4,52%, 6,92% and 2,63 for SS, -7,69%, -11,87% and 3,81 for CP, -1,11%, -1,69% and 3,10 for CG, and -0,08%, -0,12% and 3,01 for CS. The steers’s finishing on silage feedlot has dominated the other treatments. Steers’s finishing on winter pasture, and cows’s finishing on any system evaluated, are high risk investments. The most influential items on the result were the buy and sell animals prices.