Propensão de curto e de longo prazo da taxa de câmbio efetiva real sobre as exportações brasileiras líquidas de 01/1999 a 06/2018

Abstract

The goods exchange relation made between exporters and importers in many countries around the world is demonstrated to be indispensable for development. In face of this fact, the current monography investigates the possibility of validation of Marshall-Lerner's condition and aims to analyze whether the theoretically modeled variables for Mundell and Fleming actually impact on the foreign trade dynamic practiced by Brazil, testing whether the real effective exchange rate, the world income and the real gross domestic product were importante determinants for the balance of the net exports in the period from January 1999 to June 2018. The use of models of infinite distributed lags has reckoned with the experimentation of the tests of unitary roots, of cointegration and of Granger causality on the monthly data. Although it has been proven the existence of, at least, one cointegration vector, the findings did not corroborate totally with the theory and demonstrated to be discrepant with some investigated studies. It was concluded that the net exports suffer negative effects when there is positive change in the real effective exchange rate. Moreover, the proxy for world income and the Brazilian Real Gross Domestic Product revealed coefficient statistically significant and positive and negative relations, respectively, with exports. The long term propensities, finally, evidenced the worsening of the trade balance against the positive oscillations of the variables.