A dívida pública e o crescimento econômico no Brasil no período de 2003 a 2017

Abstract

The purpose of this study is verify the relationship between the Brazilian Public Debt and economic growth in Brazil from 2003 to 2017, a relationship that is presented through the debt ratio. There is a set of theories and studies that cover the subject in question, as well as a presentation of the recent Brazilian economic situation. The main Brazilian economic variables of this study are the Net Public Debt, the real growth rate of the product, Gross Savings and Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF), from 2003 to 2017 and they were collected in publications of the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE), Banco Central do Brasil (BACEN) and World Bank. The method in use the Autoregressive Vector Model (VAR), which stands out for simplicity and is widely used to capture the evolution and interdependencies between multiple time series. The results indicate that whit this sample the Public Debt and the economic growth in Brazil have a positive relationship, as well as GFCF and GDP, while savings are negatively related to economic growth. Therefore, the results suggest that in this period the public spending was important to leverage economic growth, since a debt ratio that makes this impossible has not been reached yet.