Impacto de indicadores econômicos nos furtos e roubos em estados brasileiros de 2012 a 2017

Abstract

It’s unquestionable on the present days the problematic of criminality and your impact on the economy and society, and it’s necessary to verify and analyse which factors impact the crime rates and how, making possible the reduction of the social loss that is caused. The present work sought to verify how and if significantly the unemployment, the real average income and the Regional Economic Activity Index (IBCR) impact in the theft and robbery occurrences in seven brazilian states, on the period of 2012 to 2017. Using quarterly observations and econometric methodology of panel data, and based on the Economic Theory of Crime, the results show significantly and positive effect of all variables in relation with crime rate, in consensus with what other authors said about unemployment, and conflicting with the affirmations of authors about income and the economic index. The impact of unemployment was more powerful than the impact of real average income. Due to the ambiguous effect of economic variables in criminality, according to theory, the results has shown that, in the brazilian states researched, the availability of jobs reduces crime, reinforcing the opportunity cost of commiting a crime, while the raise of average income and economic activity raise the property crimes rate, possibly by the increase of the attractiveness of the monetary advantage that criminals can get.