O setor elétrico brasileiro e sua transição para a economia verde no período 1970-2016

Abstract

The generation of electric power, started off in Brazil in the 1880s, has been facing an increasing demand by households and industrial sectors. To meet this demand, the use of the most abundant inland energy sources has been given priority, thereby making the national energy matrix work in a mixed fashion, with both renewable and non-renewable resources. Unlike most of countries worldwide, in Brazil a much higher share of renewables holds as compared with that of non- renewable energy inputs. This evidence goes along with what has been put forward by the Green Economy, which seeks to achieve an economic development that brings about welfare and social equity in tandem with a better harnessing of natural resources. In this regard, energy generation deserves a closer attention, for its production gives off greenhouse gases whose reduction is target by the Paris Agreement, signed up in 2015. Based on the provisions of the Paris Agreement and on the assumptions of the Green Economy, the objective of this study is to analyse, by the calculation of directional derivatives and gradient vectors, whether the Brazilian electricity sector is able to carry out the transition to the Green Economy, both preventing the country’s CO2 emissions from rising and its GDP from falling, while meeting the increasing demand for electricity. The major finding is that the sector can fast do the transition, yet it cannot afford to emit less CO2 without any GDP loss.