Avaliação econômica dos erros da previsão de carga em sistemas hidrotérmicos aplicada a um modelo de despacho e fluxo de potência ótimos

Abstract

The economic load dispatch is one of the most important activities in the planning operation of an electric power system. Because, is the decision of power dispatch, took by the operator, that determines which transmission lines will be most used to flow the required power by the generating system. The economic cost of erroneous forecasts is measured by a combination of forecasting results, unit commitment optimization, and cost-effective dispatch modeling for various load scenarios. The optimization of the energy use resources and the power flow in the system, define a high level of his safety and reliability, adding the most feasible cost. Along with this, results of load forecasting with small error index, help to better program the dispatch of units on generator system. Thus, the work brings the application of a system optimized dispatch of hydrothermal units using linear programming. The programming method was developed for a system of 30 bus that partially represents the southern subsystem of the Brazilian National Interconnected System. Based on predicted load error data, the system will compare the dispatch optimization costs of the base case, including scenarios of load prediction errors and variation of the generating modality. Aspects such as underestimation and overestimation load, due to forecast errors, will be implemented in alternative scenario simulations for the base case. These errors bring additional costs, which will serve as a conclusion for the study.