Viabilidade econômica da criptomoeda bitcoin e de ações listadas na B3 S.A.

Abstract

Given Bitcoin’s recently valuation, investors have considered it as an investment opportunity. Even though, the Bitcoin market is as much risky as the stock market. This paper aims to analyze the economic feasibility of investments in these markets, applying the Ibovespa Index as MARR. There were analyzed the stocks FIBR3 and MGLU3 besides the Bitcoin. Data corresponding to the daily closing price of these assets was collected between 2013 and 2018. Based on these data, GARCH Models were generated and were executed out of sample forecasts for 5 days for each asset. Combining data collected with the forecasted values, two cash flows (long-term and short-term) were arranged for each asset. Then, NPV and IRR were calculated for them in the two scenarios. The results indicate positive NPV values for all the assets in the long-term scenario, and IRR greater than the MARR suggested. In this case, the best results stand for Bitcoin. In short-term, Bitcoin has shown negative NPV and IRR, while the stock’s values remain positive. In summary, the assets presented economic viability in the long-term scenario, but in the short-term scenario, the price volatility of Bitcoin led to losses.