Metodologia para previsão da durabilidade e eficiência de geração fotovoltaica em suas diferentes topologias

Abstract

The growth in demand for electricity and the search for sustainable sources of electricity put photovoltaic generation (PV) as one of the main alternatives. Taking into account that PV panels are used to generate electrical energy from the sun's rays, the forecast of their durability and efficiency is essential for planning more consistent with the reality of each PV installation topology. In this sense, this dissertation seeks to identify the main degradation causes of the PV modules to predict the degradation rates and the performance of the panels in different configurations of installation. Firstly, a mathematical model was developed to calculate the performance of the generation for which data on climatic conditions in different locations are obtained. Thereafter, contribution weights were applied to each cause of degradation and thus obtain the value of the average rate of degradation (DR) in the fixed PV topology. Once the main causes of degradation and their respective contribution weights have been identified, fuzzy modeling is applied to find degradation in PV topologies using cooling or solar tracking. A first case study was developed to verify the performance profile of the three topologies in the city of Santa Maria as approached in this dissertation for a typical summer day and a typical winter day. DR was applied in a second case study to verify the durability of PV panels over 25 years in different locations. A third case study considered the degradation rates and the performance of each PV topology for technical and economic analyzes. The two main computer programs used for modeling PV generation and for simulations were OpenDSS and Homer. From the results obtained in this dissertation it was possible to predict the durability of the panels and the analysis of the energy generated in the different topologies of PV installation. It was observed that the guarantee of the PV panel supplied by the manufacturer is not consistent for all simulated locations of installation. The cooling of the PV panels contributed to a decrease of up to 3.1% and the installation with tracking increased the degradation rate by up to 2.43% in relation to the fixed panels. With this, there was an improvement in the durability and efficiency of the panels provided by cooling. The solar tracking increased the degradation in the panels, but generated more electrical energy than the other topologies in the simulated period. Therefore, this study concludes that in hot climates with high degradation, PV generation may be even greater over the period of its guarantee than in places where the degradation is less, but with low production of electricity. The financial analysis concluded that cooling and solar tracking are feasible, that the fixed panel topology has the highest net present value and that, despite the higher costs for the operation and maintenance of the PV modules with tracking, the cash flow is positively higher than in other configurations analyzed. Among the various contributions from this dissertation, the main ones are better predictability of power generation and a more well-grounded analysis of investments for the expansion of PV generation according to the topology used.