Dimensionamento da provisão para garantias por meio do uso da distribuição de probabilidades de Poisson

Abstract

This monograph presents the use of the Poisson probability distribution to compute warranty allowances for goods sold. A simulation is applied on a hypothetical case. The case prospects changes in the independent variables establishing scenarios with the aim of observing the behavior in the dependent variable, i.e., defects associated with products. The calculations were made with the aid of the model developed in the Microsoft Office Excel. The calculations show a Poisson probability distribution by means of a histogram. The outputs demonstrate that it is possible to use the Poisson distribution to estabilish an allowance for warranty expenses, notwithstanding certain necessary features for such an application.