Estudo sobre a viabilidade econômica de uma lavoura de soja no município de Restinga Seca

Abstract

The study aims to analyze the economic feasibility of a soybean plantation, which has 49,31 hectares of cultivated area in Restinga Seca, Brazil. Although current prices are expressives, the analysis was performed considering the risks in crop volume and market prices based on past of these variables. The hurdle rate considered was WACC of activity, that is 7.9%, making the project economically viable in certain scenarios of productivity and sales price. A sensitivity analysis was performed to check for changes in VPL over the 20 years of the project, for this was simulated taking into account a likely scenario (average production volume), a pessimistic scenario (300Kg / ha less) and an optimistic scenario (300Kg / ha more), to predict a rise or fall in years of climatic differentiation. Finally, it is clear that the activity creates value for the farmer since maintained the price of soybean bag at least R$ 70.00.