Projeção da difusão da geração distribuída fotovoltaica para consumidores comerciais conectados à rede de baixa tensão

Abstract

Incentives for renewable sources have provided a high growth of distributed photovoltaic generation (GDFV) in the Global electric matrix. Therefore, it is essential that current planning practices are ready to operate, monitor and propose ideal scenarios to all agents of this operational chain. Intended for the process of diffusion of the GDFV source as well as other intermittent sources introduce a factor of uncertainty to electrical planning due to the fact that propensity to adhere and the place of installation is subject to subjectivity of the type of final consumer. This work presents a model for the projection of the diffusion of photovoltaic systems (SFV) for commercial consumers of Group B served by the voltage level below 2.3 kV. The proposed model uses the System Dynamics (DS) technique, based on Rogers' theory of diffusion of innovations, together with the Bass model. The model evaluates the propensity of the SFV acquisition over time considering three aspects: regulatory, economic, and technical. The model is implemented using Ventana Systems Vensim software  . Scenarios of projection of the diffusion of SFV in two case studies are evaluated to validate the methodology. The results of the first case study show how incentive policies can interfere with the acquisition of VF technology. The result of the second case study, applied in a hypothetical context with a new business model or new policy that would seek to establish the sale of the surplus energy generated by the prosumers, varying the sales rate of this surplus. The experiments showed that there would be a greater attractiveness with the sale, which would result in a greater amount of prosumers adopting SFV. However, without adequate compensation for this energy, the return on investment tends to be high, which would result in low acquisition of photovoltaic technology.