Análise dos determinantes do investimento em carteira para o Brasil no período de 2000 a 2019

Abstract

The phenomenon of financial globalization has contributed both to the intensification of trade relations between countries, as well as facilitated international portfolio diversification through technological innovations and the reduction of barriers to foreign capital flows. However, globalization was not a homogeneous phenomenon, having reached emerging countries only in the 1990s. Since then, the Brazilian economy has been the destination of foreign capital flows, and these flows consist of both direct investment and portfolio investment. Portfolio investment flows, also called Short-Term Capital, are naturally volatile and with essentially speculative objectives, which makes these flows dangerous for economies with a history of high inflation. Given this context, considering the volatility of short-term capital flows and their impact on the conduct of macroeconomic policy, this study aims to analyze the determinants of foreign investment in portfolio, called passive portfolio investment, for the period from January 2000 to December 2019, employing the push-pull factor approach. Pull factors correspond to domestic variables that attract foreign capital flows to the country, whereas push factors correspond to unfavorable external variables in developed countries that drive away capital flows and toward emerging economies. The methodology adopted consists in estimating the Regressive Auto Vectors (VAR) model, in view of the adequacy of the model for estimating the dynamic relationships between the variables. The results point to the predominance of pull factors over push factors, offering evidence of a greater solidity of macroeconomic fundamentals of the Brazilian economy for the period analyzed.