A condução da política monetária brasileira do governo Dilma ao governo Bolsonaro

Abstract

The present study aims to discuss the monetary policy between the Dilma Rousseff and Jair Bolsonaro governments, identifying the strategies applied, understanding their results in the market as a whole, in addition to compiling macroeconomic data for a better understanding of the economy’s evolution, such as IPCA, Selic and GDP (PIB) - indicators present in Focus bulletin’s projections, guiding economic agent’s expectations. The dissertation is based on a theoretical-empirical research, since the analysis of the Brazilian economy’s data, the decision-making of governments and the actions of the Central Bank are supported by the debate between Keynesians and classics. The study begins with a discussion about the theoretical theme of both approaches, identifying the issues related to each methodology and what their points of view are. Consecutively, there is an outline of issues that are directly related to the currency in the country, citing the inflation targeting regime and other. Then, there is a discussion, by period, of the policies applied and how they impacted the market and the population as a whole. It is concluded that, even with an active and independent Central Bank, with successive changes in the basic interest rate of the economy, there is a lag due to the external gap presented by the monetary policy, besides the fact that there is a misalignment between the State policy and government policy of each elected administration, hampered by fiscal policies that undermine the restrictive effects that a high Selic tries to exert on the economy.