Desindustrialização: uma análise do caso brasileiro

Abstract

The present work aimed to analyze the occurrence of a Brazilian deindustrialization process in the recent period, from the 1980s to 2020. Both the decrease in the participation of the added value of the manufacturing industry in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and in the industrial participation in total employment have generated strong discussions on the subject. On one side there are the authors who defend that Brazil is going through a process of premature deindustrialization, or Dutch disease; and, on the other side, there are the authors who defend that the decrease in the participation of industry in the Brazilian economy is a natural process. In order to contribute to the debate, we have tried to verify the evolution of the industry by observing the behavior of some economic variables such as: participation of the transformation industry in the added value in the GDP; occupation of labor force; evolution of exports and imports separated by economic sectors; of the trade balance of different sectors; of the exchange rate and of an index that reflects the evolution of the prices of the main commodities. The results for the case, according to the classical definition of deindustrialization, point to the confirmation of an ongoing deindustrialization process in the country. Analyzing through the definition of Dutch disease, we arrive at the conclusion that Brazil was affected by this phenomenon; therefore, deindustrialization assumes a negative character, and a national reindustrialization project is essential for the return of economic growth in the country.