Análise e previsão de demanda para vendas em uma indústria da saúde

Abstract

Anticipating demand is a technique that underlies the strategic planning of a company, because it enables the optimization of inventories and consequently becomes a differential for each enterprise due to the agility of customer service that the tool provides. This research presents a case study of demand forecasting conducted in a health industry located in the interior of Rio Grande do Sul, which had an exponential growth in sales of a family of products, and aims to propose a demand forecast model and analyze the behavior of the results obtained. With the data analysis it was possible to suggest the best demand forecasting model for the product family. Due to the behavior of the analyzed demand, the method used was exponential moving average. After the definition of the model, the predictions for the future period of each product were made and validated by the 4MAD technique. Through the analysis of the behavior of the graphs obtained, it was verified that the products in general present few forecast errors and that the demand suffered strong impacts due to external conditions of the market.