Impacto das variáveis macroeconômicas na balança comercial do agronegócio brasileiro: análise do período de 2010 a 2020

Abstract

The strength that agribusiness plays in the Brazilian economy has already been the subject of several studies, and one way to prove its importance is through the analysis of the sector's trade balance, which is responsible for a large inflow of capital into the country. In this sense, the present study sought to verify the external economic transactions and analyze, in the period from 2010 to 2020, the impacts that the macroeconomic variables: internal income; external income; exchange rate; and terms of trade present on the Brazilian agribusiness trade balance. In a first empirical analysis, it was possible to verify that most of the production of the Brazilian sector is shipped to China, with emphasis on grains such as soy, as well as meat, on the other hand, the country has a strong import of agricultural products from Argentina, with emphasis on cereals. When analyzing the results obtained through the econometric model of the VAR and the VEC, regarding the impacts of the variables on the balance, it was possible to verify a positive effect of the increase in internal income, as well as in external income and the exchange rate, that is, positive variations in incomes, and a currency devaluation, result in better balances for the Brazilian agribusiness trade balance in the analysis period. The terms of trade did not have results that could be analyzed given the restriction of the model used. In addition, it was possible to verify through the Granger causality test that the two income variables have a bidirectional causality role with the balance, resulting in a more adjusted model. Finally, the decomposition of the error variance was analyzed, where it was possible to verify that in the 12th month, the variance of the balance of the balance is explained in 45.7% by itself, 20.89% by external income, and 17, 36% for domestic income