Eficiências dos mercados financeiros: uma discussão sobre Market Timing e seus usos por investidores contemporâneos

Abstract

This work aims to investigate the applicability of fundamental principles in finance in the context of decisions made by individual investors in the Brazilian financial market. Performance in this market is intrinsically linked to the ability to form accurate expectations in relation to the assets in which one intends to invest. In this sense, the research seeks to evaluate the efficiency of the Brazilian financial market, considering potential informational asymmetries and the impacts of human behavior on investment decisions to the point of generating possibilities for profits above the market average. That said, this work has as its research problem the following question: how effective is the use of the market timing strategy for individual investors to obtain greater returns in the financial market? In view of this, the objective is to understand the efficiency of using market timing in the financial market, analyze the constraints of the theory of efficient markets, examine how informational asymmetry can impact price dynamics, understand the effects of agents' behavior in the decision-making process investment decisions and carry out shock tests on Brazilian variable income indices in order to observe the pattern of price responses. The approach to answering this question comprises a bibliographical review of the main theories in finance consolidated over the years, as well as a descriptive analysis of the graphical behavior of the main benchmarks in each investment class. Additionally, impulse and response tests will be carried out, using an autoregressive vector model, to evaluate the reaction of variable income indicators to interest rate shocks. The main results achieved were the likely inability of investors to be able to consistently outperform the market average in the long term, due to the high level of efficiency of the Brazilian market.