Políticas econômicas no Brasil em tempos de pandemia: uma análise à luz dos aspectos abordados pela teoria econômica clássica e keynesiana

Abstract

This monograph examines the effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policies implemented in Brazil in response to the economic crisis triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic, analyzing them through the lenses of classical and Keynesian economic theories. With a qualitative and quantitative methodological approach that employs the Vector Auto Regressive Method (VAR) and the analysis of Impulse Response Functions (FRIs), this study is based on data collected since the early 2000s, with particular emphasis on the period pandemic, to assess the impact of these policies on Brazil's main economic indicators. The research revealed that, while the Emergency Employment and Income Maintenance Program (BEm), Pronampe, PAE and other support measures were vital to mitigate the immediate effects of the crisis on employment and income, the monetary and fiscal expansion resulted in a significant increase in inflation and public debt. The reduction of interest rates to historical lows presented an economic policy dilemma: stimulate growth at the expense of price stability. The empirical results indicated that the policies were effective in preserving the labor market and assisting in the recovery of GDP in the short term. However, the resulting increase in public debt raises concerns about long-term fiscal sustainability. The monograph concludes that Keynesian stimulus policies were relevant to prevent a deeper economic collapse, however, there were long-term consequences, especially in relation to public debt.