Bringing leaders’ threat perceptions back in: the United States balancing policy towards Iran’s nuclear program (2009-2020)
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Date
2023-12-11Primeiro coorientador
Silva, Igor Castellano da
Primeiro membro da banca
Vale, Peter
Segundo membro da banca
Malamud, Andrés
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The United States balanced Iran from 2009 to 2020. Balancing occurred because of threat perceptions. In this master’s thesis, I set out to make two contributions, one theoretical, another empirical. Theoretically, I reflect on the intra-realist debate over the murky divide between theories of international politics and theories of foreign policy. By focusing on defensive realism and neoclassical realism (NCR) underpinnings, I assess the effect of threat perception as a variable on both levels of theorization. I argue for NCR as a comprehensive framework for explaining state behavior. Specifically, I delve into how NCR can contribute to understanding balancing behavior that is due to threat perception. I assess the connection between (1) levels of threat from Iran’s nuclear and missile program; (2) governing elites’ threat perception; and (3) balancing strategies. By using content analysis as a method, I explore comparatively what the pronouncements of decision-makers from Obama Administration (2009-2017) and Trump Administration (2017-2020) indicate about the perception of Iranian threat and preferred balancing strategies. Thus, I argue for bringing back leaders’ perceptions and inputs as an influential part of understanding the foreign policy process. The empirical contribution also delves into how work on balancing theories has evolved to explain when, why, and how states balance and tests how NCR’s framework has contributed to this effort. Furthermore, I contribute by putting forth a model that links the effects of elites’ threat perception on balancing behavior. The empirical findings indicate that balancing behavior occurred because there was a shift in threat perception, that was due to how differently Obama and Trump administrations comprehended the impact of the nuclear deal and its effect in countering threatening Iranian behavior. Thus, changes in balancing behavior stemmed from these shifts in threat perception. Overall, this theory-oriented research addresses the crucial role of threat perceptions in shaping state behavior and adds insights to the ongoing debate on the interplay between theories of international politics and foreign policy and NCR theory-building.
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