Impactos de tempestades severas no sistema elétrico de energia do Paraná: SA-MCS index uma ferramenta fundamental de análise e redução de custos

Abstract

Severe storms represent a major operational risk for energy companies, in addition to causing disruption to the population and significantly increase in general. Severe weather forecasting tools can be useful in minimizing the impact of events on people as well as decreasing operational and labor costs. The SA-MCS index operationally run by GruMa (Santa Maria Atmospheric Modeling Group) at UFSM seeks to identify variables and thresholds that would predict the occurrence of MCS lasting more than 6 hours based on reanalysis conditions before the initiation of these. In this study, ISE events (emergency situation index) from Companhia Paranaense de Energia that took place between 2021 and 2023 were used, in order to verify the technical and economic viability of the SA-MCS index. Comparisons were made of satellite images of ISE events to confirm the performance of MCS in the state of Paraná and validate the predictions made by the SA-MCS index. After the analyses, average calculations were made of how much an MCS would cost for COPEL and what the SA-MCS index forecast could contribute to reducing this cost. In analogy, calculations were also made to predict good weather and what this prior analysis ended up saving in terms of optimization and reduction in team overtime. With this, it was verified that the index presented an excellent performance in predicting severe storm events because of the 32 events analyzed, only 3 events showed a different prediction than what actually happened, falling within the false alarm (FAR). For forecasting good weather without storms, the index performed even better and helped in decision-making to reduce the cost of teams being on notice.