Análise do comércio bilateral brasileiro com o Mercosul: uma abordagem gravitacional no período de 1991 a 2020

Abstract

The goal of this work is to evaluate the potential for bilateral trade between Mercosur countries, with an emphasis on Brazilian trade, comparing this potential to the trade actually carried out, for the years 2019 and 2020, in order to obtain a greater understanding of the prospects for Brazilian trade with the bloc. It also aims to control the influence of the Covid-19 pandemic on trade flows, as well as the effect of economic recessions in the period analyzed. To this end, the gravity model was used, estimating the bilateral trade flow equation from panel data for the analyzed period. As a result of this estimation, it was possible to verify a trade potential for Brazil and Mercosur in 2019, however, for 2020, effective trade was above potential. The estimated coefficient for the variable representing Covid was negative as expected, while the estimated coefficient for the variable for years of economic recession showed different interpretations according to the estimation methodology applied.