Entre a águia e o dragão: a competição geopolítica entre Estados Unidos e China por influência na Austrália

Abstract

This study analyzes the geopolitical competition between the United States and China for influence in Australia, highlighting how the country balances its economic, strategic, and cultural relations with these two global powers. While the United States consolidates its position as Australia's primary defense ally, China emerges as its largest trading partner, essential to the Australian economy. This scenario places Australia in a unique strategic position in the Indo-Pacific region, where diverse interests shape its foreign policy. The research addresses the concept of power transition in light of International Relations theories such as Mearsheimer's Realism, Keohane and Nye's Liberalism, and Giovanni Arrighi's systemic cycles of accumulation. The study explores the economic, military, and transnational dimensions of this competition, examining how Australia manages its position amidst China's growing influence and the relative decline of American hegemony. The analysis includes historical and contemporary data on bilateral relations, foreign direct investments, and security cooperation. Based on theoretical review and collected data, the study concludes that Australia adopts a pragmatic foreign policy to maximize its interests, avoiding exclusive alignments and prioritizing both its economic prosperity and strategic security, as the results indicate a scenario of maintaining U.S. power and capacity for influence