Um sistema especialista probabilístico de avaliação de sucesso na abertura de novos negócios

Abstract

Brazil is among the most entrepreneurial countries in the world, but the mortality rates of the small companies are high. With very fierce competition levels among the companies it is necessary for the entrepreneurs to know their competences and possibilities to set up with success. In the ambience of small businesses the owners and the companies are closely linked, making it impossible to evaluate the causes of successes or insuccesses of the business without diving into the entrepreneur s personal life. These small companies differ from great corporations with shareholders and executives because these roles are played by the same person. To have an appropriate profile it is necessary to know them in aspects such as: personal organization, networking, financial availability, academic degree, field knowledge, previous experiences, motivation, health and time available, among other variables defined by experts as important for the success of the business. Using Shell Spirit enabled to quantify variables, establish rules and develop a probabilistic expert system of success assessment in new business opening. The results that represent the tendency of success of the future business analyzed were segmented in scales ranging from to 98% in average. The tool is flexible and allows the individual assessment of the entrepreneur and each individual impacts of helps them to make decisions in the business plan elaboration.