Análise do custo de medicamentos quimioterápicos, por meio de modelos ARIMA - ARCH

Abstract

Today's medical treatments are becoming more expensive, in view of this plan and control costs are mechanisms that can ensure the survival of hospitals. The present study analyzed the cost of medications relevant financial, between January 2003 and November 2010, at University Hospital of Santa Maria. Since not all items have the same degree of importance, the drugs were classified by the ABC method which provided work with capecitabine and imatinib, the total cost of these drugs in 2010, representing about 18% compared to total expenditure on drugs and materials. The models found for the series of the cost of capecitabine and imatinib were ARIMA (0,1,1)-ARCH (1) and ARIMA (1,1,0)-ARCH (1), respectively. These models were used to analyze the behavior of the series under study and make predictions in order to assist hospital managers in decision making in hospital inventory management.